The Astros, a playoff-tested team that has ruled the American League for the past five seasons, will face the up-and-coming Mariners, who are in the playoffs for the first time in 21 years, in what figures to be a tantalizing best-of-five AL Division Series.
Justin Verlander, the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award, will start Game 1 for the Astros on Tuesday at Minute Maid Park in Houston, likely against right-hander Logan Gilbert. Verlander joins other established stars in Houston such as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez against a young Mariners team led by 2022 Rookie of the Year favorite Julio Rodríguez.
The Astros and Mariners are no strangers, having played each other 19 times during the 2022 regular season with Houston going 12-7. The Astros went 106-56 and won the AL West by 16 games over the Mariners, ostensibly putting the division out of reach by sweeping them in Seattle after the All-Star break and snapping Seattle’s 14-game winning streak.
Looking to advance to their sixth consecutive AL Championship Series, the experienced Astros have appeared in 79 playoff games since they broke through in 2015. The Mariners swept the best-of-three Wild Card Series in their first playoff appearance since 2001. Saturday’s Game 3 at T-Mobile Park will be the first playoff game in Seattle in 21 years.
When is the game and how can I watch it?
Game 1: Tuesday, 2:30 p.m. CT/12:30 PT on TBS
Game 2: Thursday, 2:30 p.m. CT/12:30 PT on TBS
Game 3: Oct. 15, TBS
Game 4 (if necessary): Oct. 16, TBS
Game 5 (if necessary): Oct. 17, TBS
All series are available in the US on MLB.TV with authentication to a participating Pay TV provider. Games are not available live internationally (archives are available approximately 90 minutes after the game ends).
What are the starting lineups?
Mariners: Seattle has seen Verlander six times this season, but much has changed since their last meeting on July 29. Expect manager Scott Servais to roll out a similar lineup to those he compiled during the Wild Card Series in Toronto, which featured slugging catcher Cal Raleigh batting cleanup.
Astros: Jeremy Peña hit second for much of the final month of the regular season, and it seems to be the spot in the order in which he’s the most comfortable. Mauricio Dubón started in center field for the majority of Verlander’s starts down the stretch, though the return of Jake Meyers from Triple-A could see him back into the starting role if he makes the ALDS roster.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Mariners: Seattle hasn’t officially named Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) its Game 1 starter, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated that the towering righty will take that assignment. Gilbert was slated to start Game 3 of the AL Wild Card Series in Toronto but will instead be on 10 days’ rest by first pitch Tuesday. Gilbert was arguably the Mariners’ most successful starter against the Astros in the regular season, holding them to a .228/.283/.348 (.631 OPS) slash line with a 2.52 ERA in four starts.
Astros: Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) will be making his first playoff start since losing two games in the 2019 World Series. He posted a 0.83 WHIP and a .186 opponents’ batting average this season, which led the AL, and his ERA was the lowest for a qualified AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez, who had a 1.74 ERA in 2000. Verlander has not allowed a homer in his last 58 2/3 innings.
In six starts against the Mariners this year, Verlander went 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA. He is 14-11 with a 3.40 ERA in 31 career postseason games (30 starts) and 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA in 15 games (14 starts) since joining the Astros in 2017. He was the Most Valuable Player of the 2017 AL Championship Series against the Yankees.
How will the bullpens line up after the starters?
Mariners: Seattle had one of the best bullpens in baseball this year, but the relievers stumbled some down the stretch and were tagged in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series for five earned runs. The most interesting development among their relief corps will be how they deploy George Kirby, who pitched out of the ‘pen for the first time since 2019 in High-A when picking up the save in that epic comeback. Since he hasn’t adjusted to a reliever’s routine, he probably won’t pitch like a conventional reliever, but the Mariners will use him in the right pockets, specifically in a tie game or with the lead.
Astros: Houston had the best bullpen in the Major Leagues this year with a 2.80 ERA. The Astros’ bullpen threw 36 1/3 fewer innings than any other team, a result of their starters working deep into games. They have an experienced back end, led by closer Ryan Pressly (33 saves) and fellow right-handers Ryne Stanek (1.15 ERA), Rafael Montero and Héctor Neris — all of whom have experience closing games — and Bryan Abreu. The only lefty is Will Smith, acquired at the Trade Deadline from the Braves, but he’s not a lock to make the ALDS roster. A pair of Astros starters – José Urquidy and Luis Garcia — could be moved to the bullpen for this series.
Mariners: Other than the injuries sustained by outfielders Jesse Winker and Sam Haggerty during the final week of the regular season, Seattle made it through the Wild Card Series without anyone getting hurt.
Astros: Houston’s roster is as healthy as it has been all season. Outfielder Michael Brantley (right shoulder surgery) and catcher Jason Castro (left knee surgery) were ruled out for the season in June.
Who is hot and who is not?
Mariners: Raleigh might be among the hottest hitters in the Majors right now. After hitting a walk-off homer that ended Seattle’s postseason drought on Sept. 30, he went 4-for-8 with a homer and a key double in the Wild Card Series. … Kelenic continues to struggle, now in a 1-for-32 stretch dating back to the regular season.
Astros: Altuve finished the season with a .300 batting average after slashing .444/.528/.844 with four homers in his final 14 games. … Peña surged in September, slashing .290/.313/.484 with six homers and 18 RBIs in his last 31 games (since Aug. 30). … Bregman slashed .287/.379/.515 with 12 homers and 47 RBIs in 67 games after the All-Star break. … Mancini, acquired from the Orioles at the Trade Deadline, struggled in a Houston uniform, posting a .622 OPS in 51 games. He’s still likely to start at DH while being a key right-handed bat off the bench.
Anything else I should know?
Mariners: Minute Maid Park has been the Mariners’ house of horrors dating back to the start of the 2019 season, when they embarked on the rebuild, but they finally turned things around and won their first series there since in June.
Astros: Houston is 71-34 against Seattle since the start of the 2017 season, including 39-17 at Minute Maid Park. … Altuve’s 23 career postseason homers rank second all-time in AL/NL history behind Manny Ramirez (29). … Among active players, Altuve is tied for fourth with 79 playoff games played. Bregman (73) and Gurriel (73) are tied for seventh. … Alvarez (1.019) and Altuve (.921) ranked second and third in the AL in OPS behind the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (1.111). … Verlander’s 187 2/3 career innings in the playoffs are the second-most among active pitchers, trailing only Clayton Kershaw (189.0).
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