Monday presents us with an 11-game slate around MLB, starting earlier than normal with the first pitch of the first game being 3:10 p.m. With 11 games on tap, there are plenty of angles to take from a betting standpoint.
The difference in baseball compared to other sports is how the spreads (run lines) are measured. Unlike in other sports where the size of a spread can vary, baseball’s spreads are defaulted to 1.5 runs, with the odds being juiced one way or another. This makes targeting games before all of the odds are up a bit easier.
Below are my favorite two bets for Monday.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds (Game 2) The pick: over 9.5 total runs (-120, PointsBet)
This is the second game of a doubleheader for these two teams Monday, so off the bat (pun intended), it’s important to make sure you are targeting the right game. With Spencer Howard and Wade Miley toeing the rubber in the second game, there’s bound to be a plethora of scoring throughout the affair.
While Howard has only allowed an opponent batting average of .197, his 16.9% walk rate has led to a ton of command issues and ultimately has contributed to his brutal 5.59 ERA. Miley, on the other hand, is posting a sub-3.00 ERA and frankly having a very strong season, but still has a hard-contact rate north of 30% while only striking out 20.1% of his batters. With the Reds in a great spot to pounce all over Howard, the Phillies should be able to tag Miley enough to help the over soar here.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers The pick: Brewers ML (-141, William Hill)
We took this exact same bet (though a different opponent) at the same odds last week and I feel confident going right back to the well.
Freddy Peralta has been sensational this season, posting a 2.11 ERA with 114 strikeouts in only 81 innings. To make things even more enticing, the current Cubs’ roster is only batting .191 against Peralta in 79 career plate appearances with 27 strikeouts over that span. Kyle Hendricks has been almost as tough on Brewers’ hitters (.220 against the current roster), but with the Brewers hitting their stride offensively and an ace on the mound, I have no problem trusting the money line here.
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