Player grades, Games 31-40: For the Edmonton Oilers, it was a tale of two segments

January 31, 2022 f_admin Game News 0

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Jan 30, 2022  •  45 minutes ago  •  6 minute read  •  Join the conversation

Edmonton Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl (29) and forward Ryan McLeod (71) react after an empty net goal by the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period at Scotiabank Arena on Jan. 5, 2022. Photo by John E. Sokolowski /USA TODAY Sports

Normally our regular reviews of 10-game segments of the Edmonton Oilers’ season come along at about 3-week intervals; however for the second time in succession nearly an entire calendar month has passed. In both cases, that interval included the usual ~3 weeks of normal game scheduling but with a ~10-day layoff due to COVID issues.

The halting on-again-off-again nature of the current season has not been conducive to consistent hockey in this part of the world, certainly not to consistently good hockey. Battling through some physical issues of their own up and down the line-up, the Oilers struggled mightily through a lengthy slump that lasted all of December and extended deep into January. Only in the last 10 days with the normal rhythms of the game re-established (at least for now) and the team returning to something approaching full health have there finally been positive signs of the righting of the ship.

Indeed, the 10-game block that began in New Jersey way back on New Year’s Eve and concluded with Game 40 in Montreal on Saturday was a Jekyll-and-Hyde story. Make it a 4-4-2 mark for the segment overall, which sounds like break-even but really isn’t in Gary Bettman’s NHL. Consider that 24 standings points were awarded in those games, with the Oilers gaining 10, their opponents 14.

True break-even in the modern NHL is 5 wins in 10 games, with a loser point or 2 sprinkled among the losses. Indeed, such results can be found just above the Oilers in the Pacific Division standings, where the second place (by points) Anaheim Ducks went 5-4-1 in their last 10, or the third place LA Kings 5-3-2. Both gained a little bit of ground on the Oil. So too did the 4 teams above Edmonton in the Wild Card race, who collectively posted a 21-17-2 record over their last 10 for an average of 11 points apiece.

Even at mid-season things are tight enough to have Oil fans nervously glancing at the out-of-town scores and uttering fervent oaths whenever a Bettman Point materializes. The good news is that the Oilers themselves have started going to that well to milk the odd extra point here and there.

The other good news is that the Oilers have games in hand against most of their rivals. All of these postponements, especially in Canada, have unbalanced the GP scales. The better measure is points percentage, where the Oilers currently rank 8th in the West, .001 behind the Kings and a similar slim margin ahead of the Ducks. It’s not a comfortable position but it’s certainly a competitive one.

Season to date

Games 1 – 10: 9-1-0, .900 | 44 GF, 28 GA | 331 SF, 339 SA | 1.050 PDO
Games 11-20: 6-4-0, .600 | 31 GF, 31 GA | 323 SF, 341 SA | 1.005 PDO
Games 21-30: 3-7-0, .300 | 26 GF, 35 GA | 331 SF, 308 SA | .965 PDO
Games 31-40: 4-4-2, .500 | 31 GF, 38 GA | 348 SF, 312 SA | .967 PDO

In some ways this season resembles Dave Tippett’s first in Edmonton, where the Oil jumped out to a 5-0-0 start and stretched it to 14-6-3 before crashing in December. By the 40-game mark they had won 20 and lost 20. That’s 2 fewer wins than they have after 40 games now.

That time they turned it around with a strong second half (17-8-5 in their last 30 before COVID struck). One hopes that’s the model for 2021-22 as well.

Indeed, such a turnaround appears to have started already. What the bolded line above doesn’t show is the dichotomy within the segment: 0-4-2 with 14 goals for, 29 against through the first 6, then a complete 180° turn to 4-0-0 with 17 for, just 9 against to close it out.

That 4-game winning run stands out in the “Streak” column in the above standings; just 1 of Edmonton’s primary rivals has won as many as 2 straight as we enter the last day of January. Meaning the Oilers have made up real ground over the past week or so.

And they’ve done so on merit, at least in the last 3 of those games. After a “goalie win” vs. Calgary, the Oil have outshot their last 3 opponents by a combined 120-80 while outscoring them by 12 real goals to 6. Our own counts at the Cult of Hockey had the Oil dominating those same games to the tune of 59 Grade A shots for, just 28 against, this after being outchanced 107-95 in the first 7 games of the segment. The process has clearly taken a significant turn for the better, and with that, the results.

Let’s turn now to individual results during the most recent segment.

Goal

One alarming trend from our “Season to date” data is a Goals-Against rate that has steadily increased from 28 in the first segment, to 31, to 35 and now to 38. Much of the focus for that has been placed squarely on the goaltending, even as defensive and systems play along with a failing penalty kill unit have all had a part to play.

Mikko Koskinen has carried the bulk of the load this last while, and with the best statistical results. That’s been a low bar of late with all three netminders mired below .900, the Mendoza Line of save percentages. Koskinen himself posted three straight games north of .925, a nice rebound from the ugly .855 he recorded during his preceding 7 games, all Oilers losses. Sometimes the name of the game really is “Goalie”.

The other two ‘tenders, young Stuart Skinner and old Mike Smith , each got 2 games during the segment. Their performance is best described as “erratic”.

Defence

Best development on the back end in recent times has been the emergence of Duncan Keith who started to play his best hockey of the season just when his teammates were doing the opposite.

The other good news here is that the Oilers’ top 4 defenders each played all 10 games of this segment after all kinds of chaos at the position in the prior 10. At one point the squad used 11 different d-men in a 7-game span.But recently some semblance of line-up consistency has returned, even as 4 different men have shared the third pairing.

Forwards

The Oilers’ top 2 scorers had their second straight mediocre segment by their own lofty standards, which have seen them routinely post 15-20 points over a 10-game set. Leon Draisaitl ‘s 11 points this time around were the lowest by a leading man in Edmonton for quite some time. And Connor McDavid ‘s 8 points in 9 games were far below his usual pace, almost alarmingly so for the consistent high-end producer. He missed 1 game on the COVID list and lately there have been whispers that he might be nursing a knock of some kind.

Kailer Yamamoto was the most productive of the rest, followed by no fewer than 11 forwards in the “support scoring” range of 2-5 points. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins managed his 5 in just 4 games of action, and the club dearly missed him when he missed 6 games to injury. Jesse Puljujarvi on the other hand dressed for all 10 but failed to light the lamp even once and mustered just 2 assists, though he did find other ways to contribute.

Player grades

We close in our usual fashion by reviewing the set of 10 games through the lens of our own subjective ratings here at the Cult of Hockey . Regular readers will know that we grade on a scale of 1 to 10, the performance of every Edmonton Oilers player in every game the team plays, based on a combination of observation and interpretation of statistical output. Here are average grades for Games 31-40 along with our customary thumbnail comment summarizing each player’s contribution over that span:

Results by grader, fourth segment:

  • Bruce McCurdy – 4 games, 2-1-1, average grade 5.4
  • Kurt Leavins – 3 games, 1-2-0, average grade 5.3
  • David Staples – 3 games, 1-1-1, average grade 5.7

  • Segment totals – 10 games, 4-4-2, average grade 5.5